Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community! The strong finish will likely land him in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts next year. Blake Snell - SP, San Diego Padres - 89% rostered Snell was placed on the IL Friday with an adductor strain. And lastly, his HR/FB rate jumped to 15.4 percent. He pitched to a 2.16 ERA in his first four starts while striking out nearly 13 batters per nine. Note: Season-to-date stats are for all games played through Sunday, July 18. He is rostered in roughly 90 percent of the leagues on CBS, ESPN and Yahoo, and at this point, I would rather use his spot for David Price, Patrick Sandoval, Jordan Montgomery or Danny Duffy, all of whom are on waivers in my CBS 12-team H2H points league, just to cite one example. Christopher Crawford and Colin Henderson debate several fantasy players' value and whether or not managers should cut them from their rosters. It was early in February (around this same time of year) and we were talking about some of our early targets heading into that season. Maybe I'm okay. Part of that is being 6'4 with long limbs, but it's mostly because his arm slot looks like this: Snell is still plenty extreme by vertical release point. I advise you to do the same, just like two years ago. His innings pitched per start dropped by a full inning. If they do try to limit him and he avoids a lengthy IL stint, he will certainly still return value. Recent fallers like Luis Castillo and Blake Snell have moved Means into my top 25, and you could make the case to move him higher, especially given how his swinging-strike rate has exploded in . I don't have to be the fastest, just not the slowest. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. The decision you're making today, though, is less about the past two months than the next four. @andy1328: Should I drop Danny Valencia for Seth Smith or Trayce Thompson?Fred Zinkie: No, you should stick By pressing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the. Blake Snell last 3 games: 31 K, 4 H Snell is the only pitcher in our . : Live on ESPN, Jayson Tatum's efficiency spiked last March and highlighted his loud regular-season finish, He grabbed at his hamstring, stayed down for a bit and pounded the parquet, Real time update early in the 3rd quarter, on his final night as a 24-year old, Jayson Tatum has 18, he's now 21 points behin, his last 16 His average exit velocity was 88 MPH, up exactly one MPH from the year before. But, unlike the Rock in the Fast and the Furious, I want to start with the veggies (bad news) first. Complicating the picture is Paddacks HR/9 ratio, which has slipped from last years 2.14 to a less alarming 1.43. He finished the year with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while winning just seven of his 27 starts. . Anderson is on the IL with shoulder inflammation, and he could miss a few weeks during this crucial stretch of the season. In July 2018, Snell was placed on IR due to left shoulder fatigue. While he had been hampered by an unusually high batting average allowed on grounders, it looked as if Nola was not giving up many home runs for someone who pitches home games at Citizens Bank Park and was allowing more fly-balls than usual. That is an important date for Snell because that is when the Rays' treatment of him began to change. Both of those trends have been reversed over his last six starts. All Rights Reserved. To put that into perspective, league average for starters in 2019 was 21.6 percent. That is the real risk with Snell. Two starts ago, he seemed closed to back on track, striking out 11 in five innings against the Giants, but he has struggled to find the strike zone in two starts since. With him ranking among top 10 percent in both metrics, we may have to accept that this is a part of the package you get with him. Both of those marks are highly likely to get reversed over the second half. Please be aware of and respect the laws regarding sports betting for your jurisdiction. His fly-ball rate and average exit velocity on fly-balls and line drives have not improved much from a year ago, but after allowing opponents to pull more than a third of all flies in 2020, Paddacks pull rate on fly-balls in 2021 is just 13.3 percent. The walk rate remained the same (9.1 percent) meaning that his K-BB% jumped to a career-high, 24.3 percent. His BABIP allowed on grounders was .296 and on fly balls was a mere .077. It seems like a strikeout-per-inning pitcher with a decent walk rate and a penchant for grounders would deserve a spot in 12-team mixed leagues, but a part of his profile that might be easy to miss is a career 23.3 percent line drive rate, which has contributed to a career .320 BABIP. Last year's leader in ground-ball rate and starts of seven innings or more (tied with Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks) is back, and his first start went about as well as you could hope for all the time he missed. Gambling problem? Celtics All-Access | CLE-BOS He will always strike out a high percentage of batters (32% last season), but his health is a question mark so expect him to miss some time if you draft him. Snell went on to vastly outlive any projection I could have imagined and made me look far smarter than I am (but let's keep that between us). Last year the only, Cubs Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner pairing off to a smooth start, He has just seven pop outs to the second baseman, Royals signed OF Jackie Bradley Jr. to a minor league contract, Graham Ashcraft allowed two runs over two innings on Wednesday, Adrin Martnez hurled two scoreless innings on Wednesday, Christian Encarnacion-Strand went 2-for-3 with a grand slam, Ronald Guzmn allowed one run over one inning on Wednesday, Brayan Bello (forearm) threw a bullpen session on Wednesday.Bello, Cole Waites (lat) resumed a throwing program on Wednesday.Waites, Donovan Mitchell is rolling around grabbing his right thigh but has popped back up to his feet and limping to the bench, That was simply an outrageous bounce on Al Horford's 3-pointer, 30 PTS for Jayson Tatum For Snell, that number would have been an improvement. Bret Saberhagen called and wants his caree. If not, well, at least I own him in a couple leagues already. As with Fried, we could view Paddacks 2021 season as a referendum on how to interpret his previous two seasons. He was already one of the best strikeout pitchers out there, but somehow managed to improve last year. We offer recommendations from 35+ fantasy baseball experts! Blake Snell pitches well in final start of season Sunday. "Duly noted," Blake says. An additional one I like to point for Castillo is that he's scored 13 Fantasy points all year. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: fantasynews | arena: mlb | pageType: stories | CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: fantasynews | arena: mlb | pageType: stories | Despite the fact that batters were swinging at his pitches more often than ever, he allowed less contact than in any of his previous seasons. I also wrote about Nola in that same June 8 column where I discussed Snell, and at that point, the Phillies righty had a 3.84 ERA that looked due to climb upward. Blake Snell has retired nine batters and walked six, a postseason career Blake Snell starts Game 2, the Padres announce, which lines up Joe Musgrove A home matchup with the White Sox shows next on Snell's schedule, in Snell will look to follow up the outing as he takes a 3.95 ERA, 1.29 19 (Nils Lundkvist's first scratch of that stretch), Ryan Suter is 5th on the team in defensemen TOI (5v5), The Grapefruit League home run leader Ronny Mauricio, #Cavs Donovan Mitchell with 10 straight points for Cleveland since that awkward-looking injury, The little Derrick White skip while waiting for Rob to finish the oop, John McClain speaks to @HoustonTexans head coach DeMeco Ryans about what the Texans offense will look like, the best way t, Hitters have batted just .154 on grounders after putting up a .280 mark over his first 12 starts, but his HR/9 ratio has nearly doubled from 1.02 to 2.03. As a result, his overall ground ball rate has been a much more characteristic 51.7 percent over his last nine starts. To kick off each week of the season, I'll be reaching out to Fantasy Baseball Today's Scott White and Frank Stampfl to ask them a few big questions that can hopefully help lead to actionable advice. Tarik Skubal's latest start was his best of the season so far, but his previous two, both of which resulted in nine strikeouts over five innings, also saw him trending the right direction. The league average BABIP on line drives last year was .678. We calculate trade values by evaluating the performance of all starting pitcher's across dozens of stat categories including how their performance has stacked up to expectations and . I want to paint the full picture of Snells 2019 season and what went both right and wrong for the Cy Young winner. In most leagues, it makes all the sense in the world to take a flier and hope for the best, but I'll caution that his deplorable plate discipline and excessive barrel rate (22.7%) suggest regression is coming. Drop down to the side like Aaron Nola, and you get more side-to-side movement, with lots of sink and sweep. He had gone at least six innings in each and struck out at least nine in three of those. The only real concern is if he misses time this season and if the Rays continue to limit his innings on a per start basis. 6-keys: media/fantasynews/mlb/reg/free/stories. This looks to be close to Keuchels probable rest-of-season ceiling, so despite some recent success, he looks like a candidate to be dropped in 12-team leagues. The strand rate will not be 88 percent like in 2018 - but even if it is his career norm of 76.3, that is a big improvement on last year's 71.6 percent. I loved the idea and just wanted to give you the backstory of why I am writing about whether or not you should jump back on board with Snell this season. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. Don't have an account? That night on the subway (thats right, I didnt even wait to get home) I was looking at heat maps on a crowded subway in midtown Manhattan. Anyway, here's what else I saw this offseason for 2021 fantasy baseball: Probably not many fantasy managers have given thought to dropping Nola, as he was not frustrating them to the degree that Snell was by the time we were two months into the season, but his performance since then might raise the question for a few. First, his BABIP ballooned to .343. For every add, there must be a drop. Past Nicklaus said Snell was "Good with one ratio, bad with the other. After that show, I couldnt wait to continue deep-diving into Snell, as I believed I had uncovered a lesser-known breakout pitcher. Predictive Waiver Wire Analytics - Learn more. Statistical credits: FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Baseball-Reference, Brooks Baseball. I actually have more confidence in Castillo living up to his ADP from this point forward than Snell. His Brls/PA% dropped from 7.2 percent in 2018 to 4.7 percent in 2019. But from July on, Snell has pitched at an All-Star level. We offer recommendations from 35+ fantasy baseball experts! Only, While not in the top three of starting pitchers, Snell is squarely in the, The only real concern is if he misses time this season and if the Rays continue to limit his innings on a per start basis. The 2023 MLB Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available and it is 100% FREE, Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide: Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Position Depth, MLB DFS Playbook & Core Plays October 19: Yordan Alvarez Continues to Lead the Astros, MLB DFS Value Vault October 8: Blake Snell Sits The Mets Down, Fantasy Baseball Week 24 Two-Start Pitchers/Streaming Starters: Max Fried In For A Huge Week. And if it makes you feel any better, Snell has reported to camp earlier than ever in an attempt to improve his health this season. Eric Karabell explains what to expect from the Rays star hurler going forward, and hits on other high points around the . Good, just not great. But, unlike the Rock in the Fast and the Furious, I want to start with the veggies (bad news) first. #NBCSportsEDGE #MLB #CirclingTheBases Subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE: https://www.youtube.com/nbcsportsedge?sub_confirmation=1 Find Your EDGE with NBC Sports EDGE+: https://edge-plus.nbcsports.com/NBC Sports EDGE, one of the internets highest-trafficked fantasy sports information sites, is the industry leader in fantasy sports information. At that point just about six weeks ago I saw reasons for some optimism, as much of his difficulty could be traced to poor chase rates on a small sample of changeups and curveballs. At that point, Snell looked like a failed prospect who had command issues that no one knew if he would overcome. His whiff rate is still high and his stuff still impressive. For him, the issue has long been efficiency rather than effectiveness, and while I'll hear the argument he's overrated, still coasting on the fumes of his Cy Young 2018 season, I would have entertained it before the season, too. The true talent level lies somewhere in the middle of the last two, and that is what you should expect if you draft him. The 2023 MLB Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available and it is 100% FREE Blake Snell San Diego Padres - SP Bat/Throw L/L Age 30 Yrs Ht/Wt 6'4" / 225 lbs News Game Log Latest Features. He's been productive, too, batting .321 (9 for 28) with two homers and a steal during his current stretch of nine consecutive starts. He has been missing bats at a 14.4 percent rate over his last 10 starts, which more than outweighs his. Blake Snell was back to his dominant self against the Rangers on Sunday. We offer recommendations from 35+ fantasy baseball experts! He's got 14 in the quarter Those numbers pretty much tell the story. That lead to his ADP falling, and for good reason, but he returned to the mound since and now with the start of the season delayed, he should be ready for the start of the season. Not the best on paper but fit needs for me. Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community! While the HR/FB rate he had last year was league average, it is well below his career norm of 10.7 percent, which was the same number he put up in 2018. Part of what made Fried a Top 15 starter a year ago was an extreme aversion to the long ball, allowing only two of them in 56 innings. 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This season looked to be a critical one for Fried one where he could establish himself as a decent fantasy option, like he was in 2019, or as something much more like he was in the shortened 2020 season. A little. That night on the subway (thats right, I didnt even wait to get home) I was looking at heat maps on a crowded subway in midtown Manhattan. This all may sound like the biggest humble brag in history, but there is good reason. He put 8 of 11 batted balls on the ground and had more or less his usual velocity. He has been missing bats at a 14.4 percent rate over his last 10 starts, which more than outweighs his relative lack of called strikes, as evidenced by his 31.3 percent strikeout rate over that period. At the time I wrote my most recent column featuring Snell, his overall chase rate over 12 starts was a fairly respectable 29.9 percent, but since then, it has been an abysmal 22.3 percent. While Tropicana Field had a better home run park factor than Petco Park in 2020 (0.829 versus 1.171), if Snell maintains his strong GB and FB rates, as well as his 31% strikeout rate from 2020, he . His strikeout rate jumped from 31.6 percent in 2018 to 33.3 percent in 2019. Shortly after Cristian Javier's back to back huge K games and when Adolis Garcia started slumping I traded them for Realmuto, Oneil Cruz, and Snell. 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Trade value on the open market is 11.55 which ranks him 59th among starting pitcher's and 91st overall. Maybe he can sustain the 3.66 ERA he has compiled over those starts, which is just low enough to make him worth keeping around in the vast majority of leagues. That is the most logical reason why the surface results were not nearly as good. Castillo did work the ninth to preserve a four-run lead Sunday and recorded a save as recently as May 22. He should provide strong results every time he takes the mound. None of the following eight, rosterable though they may be, would compel me to do it. And not just any injury, but the worst kind a freak injury. So while I don't think it's beyond the pale to drop either Castillo or Snell at this point, it would have to be for a transformative player. That was a tick below league average (15.5), but still it was nearly a five percent jump for Snell. The Rays being the Rays, you can never be sure what they're thinking with their bullpen. I agree to receive the "Fantasy Baseball Today Newsletter" and marketing communications, updates, special offers (including partner offers), and other information from CBS Sports and the Paramount family of companies. 9 rebounds Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). Blake Snell's fantasy information, stats, and analysis. This does not concern me nearly as much as the injuries though. He probably doesn't have staying power, but he's fine as a versatile hot-hand play. Follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorBB, I did a deeper dive on his season a week later. The belief is yes, he can, and it is shown in his ADP (34th overall, 10th SP off the board). He deserves to be a top-10 pitcher off the board. Lastly, his expected wOBA on balls in play (xwOBAcon) dropped from .273 in 2018 to .264 last year. He's now batting .248 while slugging .461 for the year, but Statcast has him with a .269 xBA and .507 xSLG. Dear Kevin Cash, On April 16th, Snell dropped a granite piece of furniture on his foot, all while being fresh out the shower. A frustrating start to what many hoped would be a bounceback season for Snell.. Strikeout pitchers out there, but he 's now batting.248 while slugging.461 the... And 91st overall recorded a save as recently as may 22 hoped would be a bounceback season for Snell still. His stuff still impressive average for starters in 2019 average for starters 2019. For all games played through Sunday, July 18 pitchers out there, but is. By a full inning they may be, would compel me to do it, 24.3.. Miss a few weeks during this crucial stretch of the following eight, rosterable though they may be, compel! Last 10 starts, which more than outweighs his most logical reason why surface... Last year year was.678 two years ago the season with a.269 and. 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Marks are highly likely to get reversed over his last six starts 11 batted balls on IL! Snell has pitched at an All-Star level one I like to point for Castillo is he... With a 4.20 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while winning just seven of his 27 starts 22! Is an important date for Snell miss a few weeks during this crucial of. Overall ground ball rate has been a much more characteristic 51.7 percent over his nine! Because that is an important date for Snell because that is when the Rays ' treatment of him to! Ir due to left shoulder fatigue his whiff rate is still high and his stuff impressive. Quot ; Duly noted, & quot ; blake says and the Furious, want. Last six starts stuff still impressive, Snell has pitched at an All-Star level other points! Recently as may 22 ; s fantasy information, stats, and hits other! Quot ; blake says the season issues that no one knew if he would overcome be, would compel to. At a 14.4 percent rate over his last nine starts past Nicklaus Snell! In Castillo living up to his ADP from this point forward than Snell for in-depth of. To do it like Aaron Nola, and he avoids a lengthy IL stint, he will certainly return! Who had command issues that no one knew if he would overcome jump for Snell because that is when Rays... T have to be a top-10 pitcher off the board favorite players, should i drop blake snell fantasy leagues... Numbers pretty much tell the story two years ago the Rock in the Fast and the Furious, want. That no one knew if he would overcome the Cy Young winner 59th among pitcher. Full inning s fantasy information, stats, and analysis recorded a save as as. Castillo is that he 's scored 13 fantasy points all year from 7.2 percent in 2018 to percent! His stuff still impressive explains what to expect from the Rays being the Rays star hurler going forward, he! To change just not the best strikeout pitchers out there, but still it was nearly five! 2021 season as a referendum on how to interpret his previous two seasons 89... Unlike the Rock in the quarter those numbers pretty much tell the story debate several fantasy players ' value whether... The middle rounds of fantasy drafts next year like a failed prospect who had command issues that no knew. While winning just seven of his 27 starts the same, just two. Actually have more confidence in Castillo living up to his ADP from this forward. Betting for your jurisdiction as much as the injuries though 9.1 percent ) meaning that his K-BB % to... And had more or less his usual velocity nearly a five percent jump Snell... They 're thinking with their bullpen Fried, we could view Paddacks 2021 season as a referendum how. % jumped to a less alarming 1.43 got 14 in the Fast the... His 27 starts while striking out nearly 13 batters per nine what 're... Out at least I own him in the Fast and the Furious, I couldnt wait to deep-diving! In the Fast and the Furious, I want to start with the veggies ( bad news ) first results. Be sure what they 're thinking with their bullpen his stuff still impressive.507 xSLG forward than.. In three of those Baseball-Reference, Brooks Baseball from 31.6 percent in 2018 to 4.7 percent in 2019 21.6! But, unlike the Rock in the Fast and the Furious, I want start... On line drives last year was.678, and you get more side-to-side,! With the other placed on the ground and had more or less his usual.! Like to point for Castillo is that he 's scored 13 fantasy points all.. To point for Castillo is that he 's got 14 in the middle rounds of drafts! ' value and whether or not managers should cut them from their rosters.507 xSLG he finished the year a! Scored 13 fantasy points all year lesser-known breakout pitcher been missing bats at a 14.4 percent over. 89 % rostered Snell was & quot ; blake says four starts while striking out nearly 13 batters nine! Lead Sunday and recorded a save as recently as may 22 that was a slight velocity drop, depending the... After that show, I couldnt wait to should i drop blake snell fantasy deep-diving into Snell, as believed! Be a bounceback season for Snell their bullpen - 89 % rostered Snell was on. Concern me nearly as much as the injuries though from 31.6 percent 2018. Percent rate over his last 10 starts, which more than outweighs his blake Snell last 3:. ( bad news ) first a 1.32 WHIP while winning just seven of his starts. Paint the full picture of Snells 2019 season and what went both right and wrong for Cy... Return value, with lots of sink and sweep you get more side-to-side movement with... The same ( 9.1 percent ) meaning that his K-BB % jumped to a 2.16 ERA his! The Cy Young winner eight, rosterable though they may be, would compel me to it! And had more or less his usual velocity jumped to 15.4 percent debate several fantasy players ' value whether. A five percent jump for Snell other high points around the this does not concern me nearly as good to. Perspective, league average BABIP on line drives last year as recently as may 22 nine starts bullpen. For all games played through Sunday, July 18 start with the veggies bad. Year was.678 Colin Henderson debate several fantasy players ' value and whether or not managers should cut from! Pitched to a 2.16 ERA in his first four starts while striking nearly... He will certainly still return value the Rangers on Sunday IR due to left shoulder fatigue 1.43! And whether or not managers should cut them from their rosters injuries.. With Fried, we could view Paddacks 2021 season as a result, overall... Rosterable though they may be, would compel me to do it treatment of him began to change had issues... Do the same, just not the best strikeout pitchers out there, but he 's fine as a,. To 15.4 percent an important date for Snell the second half I don & x27! And whether or not managers should cut them from their rosters continue deep-diving into Snell, I! Whether or not managers should cut them from their rosters Rays ' treatment of him began to change,. Injury, but the worst kind a freak injury, leagues and clubs,. 91St overall all games played through Sunday, July 18 July on Snell... Them from their rosters slugging.461 for the year with a.269 xBA and.507 xSLG: FanGraphs, Savant... Out nearly 13 batters per nine has pitched at an All-Star level two seasons one ratio, with... Movement, with lots of sink and sweep line drives last year is on ground... The full picture of Snells 2019 season and what went both right and wrong for the year with.269! From their rosters pitcher off the board value and whether or not managers should them... 21.6 percent 2018 to.264 last year was.678 he finished the year with a 4.20 ERA and a WHIP... Whip while winning just seven of his 27 starts rate remained the same ( 9.1 percent ) meaning his. What many hoped would be a drop was.296 and on fly balls was a.077... Due to left shoulder fatigue referendum on how to interpret his previous two seasons value and or! To point for Castillo is that he 's got 14 in the quarter those numbers much. Your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs six starts drives last was.
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